The Reserve Bank of New Zealand took the market by surprise and cut its official cash rate by 25bps to 2.25%. Governor Wheeler argued that the deteriorating outlook for global growth, and more specifically the uncertainty surrounding China’s economic prospect, justifies this surprise easing move from the central bank.
The bears performed strongly until the beginning of US session on Wednesday when EUR/USD managed to erode losses and bounce back to 1.10. In the morning on Thursday we see another round of selling pressure, but movements remain quite hesitant. It is all about the ECB meeting today. In December EUR/USD had spiked on disappointment. Bearish outcome of the gathering may send the pair well down to 1.08, in move that is estimated by daily technical indicators. However, the bulls will try to catch the first monthly resistance at 1.1227 in case there is dissatisfaction with the ECB's policy.
The jump in gold ETF holdings during early 2016 has been widely publicised, with the ytd total over 260t, or 18%, higher compared with end-2015 levels. Retail buying of coins and bars has also improved, but less dramatically. Below, we draw on our latest field research, highlighting key trends, for both gold and silver, in particular the strength of consumer price expectations and what this may suggest for retail demand over the rest of 2016.
Bearish consolidation for Gold • Gold's bullish momentum keeps going despite yesterday's consolidation. Hourly resistance is given at 1279 (04/03/2015 high). Hourly supports lies at 1250 (04/03/2016 low). Expected to show continued strengthening. • In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).
Swiss unemployment fell in February to 3.7% from 3.8% in January. Although there is a seasonal factor to take into consideration, hiring generally only really starts to pick up in the month of March. CPI figures in February also bettered expectations with prices rising 0.2% compared to a drop of -0.4% in January and -0.1% expected. These, are first signs of improvements after a very difficult year in 2015. It will be interesting to see whether the Swiss economy can keep up the momentum over the coming months.
Hyperinflation for goods and services has so far not been evident despite QE while the prices of equities have risen inversely in respect to bond yields. The central bankers follow the latest fad for negative interest rates after almost a decade of ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy). Salaries have generally remained stable in the USA, EU and Japan. So there is no salary rise-cost of production rise-product price rise inflation cycle. Negative interest rates were introduced by the SNB (Swiss National Bank) to discourage foreigners buying Swiss francs in order to avoid appreciation of the currency. That was when the Swiss franc was still considered a safe haven.
The most recent polls point to a vote of 44% vs. 40% in favour of remaining in the EU. But polls predictions missed the Scottish independence referendum and the 2015 UK general election. Betting markets currently attach a probability of 25-30% to the possibility of Brexit. Also if probably the UK will stay in the EU what could be the outcome in case of Brexit?
Monaco Growth Announces Investor Conference in Monaco for July 24th – 26th
Regulierung – seit der Finanzkrise prägt der Ruf nach mehr Kontrolle das Banking: Wegen regulator
Die Fonds-Konferenz der SKSF ist eine wichtige, branchenspezifische Plattform für Wissens- und Erfa
2 evenings to find out about the latest from the digital industry & 2 days to find ideas and to crea
ICDA will return this year to its alpine home for the 38th Bürgenstock Meeting.
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