Venezuela is at risk of default: according to a recent report of the rating agency Moody's, is "highly unlikely" that Venezuela has this year of foreign currency sufficient to meet its payments. The default would hit before the state oil company, PDVSA, followed by the Caracas government. The situation in the country is very serious and in all respects. The International Monetary Fund now estimates that GDP will fall by 8% this year and that inflation will rise to 480%. Foreign exchange reserves have fallen to $ 12 billion, the lowest level since 2003, of which perhaps just 1.5 to 2.0 billion are readily liquid.
UBS has warned its customers about possible restrictions in the negotiations in relation to the referendum on Brexit. If during tomorrow's vote should occur extreme swings or difficulty in terms of liquidity the bank may have problems running transactions on its electronic trading platform. If problems occur, the transactions would be carried out as soon as the situation gets back to normal, UBS says. Other institutions, such as the Dutch ING and the French Societe Generale, have sent similar communications to its customers.
Ads by Mario Draghi, who has coaxed the bankers with borrowed money supply not only at no cost, but even negative interest, the ECB moves to implementation of the plan: the European central bank is ready to pay European finance institutions to lend them money, provided that end up channeled to the real economy. The new Tiltro plan provides that the interest rate will depend on the behavior of the bank and the use we make of that money. If it acts as always, he will not pay interest; but if the bank increase its lending by at least 2.5%, it will be the ECB to pay the bank, up to 0.4%.
The ECB is ready for any eventuality, even if Brexit, President Mario Draghi said. And even the Fed, the President Janet Yellen said, is ready to act after the vote if necessary. In his speech to the European Parliament, Draghi said that "the recovery of the euro area has gained momentum at the beginning of the year. It is expected to proceed at a moderate but steady pace, supported by strong domestic demand and transmission of our dal'efficace real economy "policy. He added that the inflation dynamics remain "fairly subdued" and that will remain low in the coming months.
Economic growth in Ticino is not leaving traces, indeed is less than the rest of Switzerland. According to BAK Basel calculations, the cantonal GDP in both mild recession in 2015 (-0.1%) than in 2016 (-0.1%); data, although provisional for both years, are based on projections made by the institute on the basis of calculations of the Federal Statistical Office for the previous years (the FSO is stopped for now to a provisional figure of GDP reported Ticino 2013 ). To take the step of shrimp in 2015, according to Bak, would also include the Valais and Grisons, the only other case in Switzerland to go in the opposite direction than the national average (2015 closed with a GDP growth of 0, 9%).
George Soros takes the field in the referendum of June 23 in Britain and expresses clear opionion about the scenario of a possible Brexit, convinced that the pound would lose "at least 15%, but perhaps even more 'than 20%", descending to parity with the euro. It would be a paradoxical joining the single European currency, with a devaluation with no benefit to the UK economy. The forecast comes from the financier who in 1992 thanks to his bet on the devaluation of the British currency managed to make "substantial profits" for his hedge fund "at the expense of the Bank of England and the British Government", as noted by Soros in an editorial the 'Guardian'. "It 's almost certain that the pound would drop quickly and abruptly" in case of victory of the' Leave 'in the referendum of June 23, and it would be a 15% devaluation of the "most disruptive and more" which took place in September 1992, Soros writes which is considering the pound falling from the current $ 1.46 to "below $ 1.15," then by 25-30% below the pre-referendum range between 1.50 and $ 1.60.
Now it's official, the president of Russia Vladimir Putin will be in China next Saturday, June 25. Although the details of the state visit are not yet known, the Russian ambassador to China, Andrei Denisov said that "With regard to the upcoming visit, we have quite a substantial list of over thirty projects that are now in various stages of preparation".
On 23 June, the UK will hold its long-awaited referendum for voters to determine whether to remain in, or leave the European Union. Although the run-up to the event has been long and dragging, very crucial questions regarding possible outcomes, consequential scenarios and market reactions have only come to the fore in recent weeks. In this note, we summarise what we think are the most important facts and figures surrounding the event. Unfortunately, we cannot forecast the vote outcome with any degree of certainty. Until recently, opinion polls and bookmaker odds saw the “Remain” camp in a more or less clear lead over the “Leave” one. However, in recent days, the odds have swung significantly in favour of „Leave“. In addition, both bookmaker odds and opinion polls have proven to be unreliable forecasters in UK elections and the Scottish referendum, so it would seem unwise to rely on them. Given the recent swings in public opinion and the narrow margin between the support of the two campaigns, we believe that the outcome of the referendum is too close to call. To that extent, a Brexit is a very real threat, and thus, we look at some crucial what-if questions in a macroeconomic context. Since there is no precedent for an EU exit, forecasts are hard to make, but building scenarios based on plausible assumptions should help find some guidance for the time after the referendum.
The Quantitative easing program of the European Central Bank could help bolster the eurozone economy. As stated in the monthly report, the Central Bank of Germany points out that, if inflation will return to 2%, the ECB will have to start a normalization of its monetary policy process "regardless of the status of public finances and the level of financial stability." Previously, the Bundesbank had been strongly opposed to the quantitative easing program launched by ECB 15 months ago, as it was feared that such an intervention would eventually reduce pressures on euro zone governments, urging them to slow down on reforms.
Bad news for Swisscom employees wishing to take early retirement. According to the opinion of Syndicom, professional trade union, the biggest Swiss telecom operator plans to review its policy on pension fund by cutting the services offered. The Complan Foundation Board, which manages the cash assets of the second pillar of Swisscom employees, think of suppressing the bridging pension for those who opt for early retirement, as Syndicom makes public today in a note; simultaneously, the conversion rate and the technical reference rate should be revised downwards.
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