Growth and inflation have picked up a bit, which we expect the FOMC to acknowledge. The Fed’s LMCI fell in both January and February, but we think the strength in the core employment indicators from both the household and establishment survey data supports the conclusion that labor markets have improved since the FOMC’s last meeting.
The concerns dominating investor attention to start the year – especially about monetary policy, China, and global growth more broadly – have not dissipated, but investors seem to be coming to terms with them, and valuations now account for that uncertainty.
The monetary easing announced by the European Central Bank on Thursday had some unexpected components, in particular the new 'TLTROII', but it is unlikely to provide a significant boost to the subdued eurozone recovery, Fitch Ratings says
The US dollar is overvalued. The US national debt is 104% of GDP, and the annual balance of trade deficit is over $500 billion. Despite these figures, there are many who consider the US dollar a safe haven currency, and the dollar is holding up in the FX markets.
The Sterling refuses to edge lower and appears to be headed towards the resistance line above 1.49. However, the Cable is first required to pierce through the supply area at 1.4446, represented by the monthly R1, which limited the pair's volatility on Friday. The 1.44 psychological level is also playing a part in the pair's ability to appreciate, thus, due to no impetus present to push the Pound higher today. As a result, a corrective decline is likely to take place, but the bearish momentum could fail to exceed the 1.4345 mark, as the 55-day SMA and the weekly PP are providing immediate support there.
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