On 23 June, the UK will hold its long-awaited referendum for voters to determine whether to remain in, or leave the European Union. Although the run-up to the event has been long and dragging, very crucial questions regarding possible outcomes, consequential scenarios and market reactions have only come to the fore in recent weeks. In this note, we summarise what we think are the most important facts and figures surrounding the event. Unfortunately, we cannot forecast the vote outcome with any degree of certainty. Until recently, opinion polls and bookmaker odds saw the “Remain” camp in a more or less clear lead over the “Leave” one. However, in recent days, the odds have swung significantly in favour of „Leave“. In addition, both bookmaker odds and opinion polls have proven to be unreliable forecasters in UK elections and the Scottish referendum, so it would seem unwise to rely on them. Given the recent swings in public opinion and the narrow margin between the support of the two campaigns, we believe that the outcome of the referendum is too close to call. To that extent, a Brexit is a very real threat, and thus, we look at some crucial what-if questions in a macroeconomic context. Since there is no precedent for an EU exit, forecasts are hard to make, but building scenarios based on plausible assumptions should help find some guidance for the time after the referendum.
The Quantitative easing program of the European Central Bank could help bolster the eurozone economy. As stated in the monthly report, the Central Bank of Germany points out that, if inflation will return to 2%, the ECB will have to start a normalization of its monetary policy process "regardless of the status of public finances and the level of financial stability." Previously, the Bundesbank had been strongly opposed to the quantitative easing program launched by ECB 15 months ago, as it was feared that such an intervention would eventually reduce pressures on euro zone governments, urging them to slow down on reforms.
Bad news for Swisscom employees wishing to take early retirement. According to the opinion of Syndicom, professional trade union, the biggest Swiss telecom operator plans to review its policy on pension fund by cutting the services offered. The Complan Foundation Board, which manages the cash assets of the second pillar of Swisscom employees, think of suppressing the bridging pension for those who opt for early retirement, as Syndicom makes public today in a note; simultaneously, the conversion rate and the technical reference rate should be revised downwards.
Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist, in their book about Technical Analysis published in 2010, hypothesized that technical analysis is considered historically native from Japan, because is there that the first recorded technical rules have been found. However technical analysis is thought to be a more ancient method of analyzing markets and prices, but its history has been poorly recorded.
While polls see the lead again Remain faction in referundum on Brexit next June 23, the fears about the exit of Britain European Union weigh on merger between Deutsche Boerse and the London Stock Exchange. The alarm is launched by the Wall Street Journal, according to which, even if the British were to choose "remain", the merger, which would create a colossus with $ 30 billion of market capitalization, is winning widespread skepticism in the German political world. According to insiders, the Brexit would lead to severe obstacles to closing the agreement, due to expected pressures on the political front, an even stricter regulatory scrutiny and decided a change in the valuation of both companies.
Salaries of managers of the largest Swiss companies have not decreased in 2015 and in fact the difference between the lowest wages and the highest rate was a record of the last five years. The union Travail Suisse in a note today announced the rankings, asking at the same time a solidarity levy on frameworks fees through an amendment to the law that governs the public company.
The Russian giant Rosnet oil could fall into Chinese or Indian hands. According to reports from Bloomberg, Vladimir Putin is thinking of selling the idea to consolidate public finances weighed down by oil prices to a minimum. In a context aggravated by European sanctions and counter-moves by the Federation, that have accelerated a crisis that would require budget cuts difficult to achieve, according to the rumor reported by Bloomberg, the Kremlin is seeking a buyer for the 19.5% of the leaders of the Rosneft oil, and he would be just trying to place it in a joint venture between the Chinese and Indians. The revenues expected from the partial privatization of at least 700 billion ribli ($ 11 billion).
Microsoft has officially announced its partnership with Kind, a US start-up, to launch, on the market, software that keeps track of the marijuana plants from seed to sale within the legal market. "We believe that in the area there will be significant growth. With industry regulations, there will be more transactions and we believe there will be more sophisticated requirements and tools ", to be respected and to develop, Kimberly Nelson says, responsible for solutions to the state governments and local Microsoft.
Pair's Outlook The Cable managed to erase intraday losses and trade flat on Thursday, amid two main opposing referendum groups suspending their campaigns. The main support area, represented by the Bollinger band, the monthly S2 and the weekly S1 was confirmed once more, suggesting that a drop below the 1.41 level is doubtful, at least for now. However, technical indicators insist the GBP/USD pair is to continue weakening today. With no solid fundamental impetus present, the Sterling has the potential to erase this week's losses completely, but only if the immediate resistance in face of the monthly S1 at 1.4288 gives in.
Spain's Gamesa and Germany's Siemens announced the merger of their respective wind energy business to create the leading builder of wind farms in the world. Gamesa said it has reached an agreement in principle but the final details have to be approved. It is not clear whether the German company will opt for the sale of its division. Siemens and Gamesa are respectively the fourth and the seventh in the world manufacturer of wind turbines and, together, would account for 12.6% of the global market, becoming the second company in the industry world after Vestas, which is 13.2%, unseating Chinese Goldwind.
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