The credit quality of euro area sovereigns will likely remain stable in 2016-17, supported by moderate economic growth and stabilizing debt-to-GDP ratios. But there are some factors that create longer-term risks. It's what has emerged from the Moody's report, entitled "Outlook Stable Overall, But Reform Efforts Are Fading And Political Risks Are Rising".
The impact of Britain's exit from the European Union would be broadly negative for UK corporates, with the transport, property and leisure industries at most risk along with smaller retailers, Fitch Rating says. In contrast, some exporters would benefit from moderate sterling depreciation, as long as a new trade deal was swiftly negotiated.
The SNB is clearly in a reactive stance rather than taking a proactive strategy. As we had expected, the SNB held its policy rates unchanged (Sight deposit rate -0.75% & 3month Libor -0.25% to -0.75%) while not tinkering with tightening banks threshold exemptions on negative rates.
The focus today is first on the US CPI release and then the Federal Open Market Committee meeting later. The market is looking for a core CPI reading of +2.2%, unchanged from the January reading. The post-global financial crisis high for a single month was 2.3% back in April, 2012.
Growth and inflation have picked up a bit, which we expect the FOMC to acknowledge. The Fed’s LMCI fell in both January and February, but we think the strength in the core employment indicators from both the household and establishment survey data supports the conclusion that labor markets have improved since the FOMC’s last meeting.
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