The first 2016 Ecb meeting ended without any change to the monetary policy stance. But Mario Draghi is ready to act in the next assembly due on march 10. He didn't give any hint on what kind of actions the Ecb will choose but he is ready to tackle deflation.
We have revised some of our EM projections lower (COP, MXN, RUB and ZAR) as our risk-bearish FX trading strategy is paying larger dividends than we anticipated early in the year. Leaving short-term relief rallies aside, we expect the EM and commodity-currency block to remain weak. This trading strategy is built on the Fed’s reaction function and Asian data. Next week’s Fed meeting will be the key event. Risky assets are for sale in markets, volatility is high and there are risks that global economic weakness will spill further into the US economy. With only one rate hike priced in for this year, the Fed may find communication difficult without signalling a disappointing ‘one and done’ approach.
"The outlook balance for the region overall is negative, largely because of policy risks", said Standard & Poor's Ratings Services in its latest review of Central and Eastern European (CEE) sovereign ratings outlooks
2016 has, so far, been a volatile and tumultuous year for financial markets. Only three weeks in, we have already seen a multitude of news events causing risk aversion to spike. These include, to name just a few, the tumbling price of oil, a myriad of different policy moves from the Chinese authorities, conflicting indicators of Chinese economic growth and subsequent fears of slower global growth, yet more idiosyncratic corporate events and geopolitical events.
Stocks continued to plummet last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.19% to close the week at 15,988, while the S&P 500 Index declined 2.18% to 1,880, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.34% to 4,488. In fixed income, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell from 2.11% to 2.03% as its price rose.
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