In September, the main focus was once again the central banks, the ECB first of all, then the Bank of Japan and the Fed. Expectations were high in all three cases. To announce additional monetary easing in the first two, and guidance on anticipations and credibility in the third. The first two disappointed the market, announcing measures that fell well short of investor anticipations. Already in July, the BoJ opted to keep things as they stood even though a large proportion of investors expected to see further monetary easing. The Fed, for its part, struggled to overcome internal divisions and look beyond a month-by-month horizon, at the risk of making mistakes in its growth projections and damaging its credibility.
Recap of a few key points.
In conclusion, all of this suggests that while they should not cease all support, the central banks would do well to ease up on monetary easing. Particularly given that in the event of a relapse, politicians will be quick to point the finger at issuers – whereas responsibility for the continuation of the recovery at this stage lies in the political sphere (structural reforms and budgetary stimulus).
Hopefully, the low point in sovereign bond yields is now behind us: this would bring an end to the deflationary risks that have haunted us since the 2008 crisis.
Global CEO & Co-CIO,Oddo Meriten AM
Global Co-CIO, Oddo Meriten AM
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