The economic outlook is bright enough to warrant a pro risk investment stance. Our overweight equities/ underweight duration seems consistent with a firming of global growth and an unwinding of prior deflation fear.
Let's start our analysis.
The year-to-date performance of asset classes, reserves a surprise: emerging equities are still ahead, their performance are neck to neck with gold.
Globally we notice that the Gross Domestic Product remain at the same level: we register no changes.
Eurozone: Italy and France are under pressure
Italy is the weakest link of the EMU (excl. Greece): the banking sector is not restructured yet and the Non Performing Loan issue not solved, finally public debt reaches record levels and growth remains sluggish.
The French growth surprised positively in the fourth quarter and most economic indicators are getting (slowly) better. But, strong structural burdens, high unemployment and (very) messy public finances hinder growth.
In Germany, surveys continue to point toward dynamic growth, most, if not all the structural indicators are looking healthy
Global CEO & Co-CIO,Oddo Meriten AM
Global Co-CIO, Oddo Meriten AM
Deputy Head of Asset Allocation, Oddo Meriten AM
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