Fewer than 4,600 banking jobs will be moved out of London because of Brexit, according to new research. That figures represents just 6% of the total number of people employed by big international banks in the City – and is far below previous, gloomier predictions.
The Financial Times estimate is based on statements from 15 of the UK’s biggest banks, interviews with more than a dozen executives and industry benchmarks.
The news will be a big blow to Dublin, Frankfurt and Paris who want to benefit most from the predicted 'Brexodus' starting on March 29, 2019.
Research by the Financial Times after dozens of interviews and statements with banks and executives claims that the jobs figure will be a fraction of the figures touted by the most gloomy predictions. The newspaper that the big international banks now plan to shift less than six per cent of their UK workforce abroad.
Earlier this year, Deutsche Bank executive Sylvie Matherat said 4,000 of its 9,000 London workers might be shifted abroad. But the new study suggests only 350 will go by April 2019.
At JPMorgan, where chief executive Jamie Dimon warned before the Brexit vote of up to 4,000 London job losses, the number leaving before April 2019 is set to be closer to 700.
Goldman Sachs, which has taken a new office in Frankfurt that could accommodate 1,000 people, expects to move fewer than 500 from London. HSBC is still planning to move “up to 1000 people”, although its chief financial officer recently said the figure could fall. And Swiss bank UBS has scaled back the figure for those affected from 1,000 to an estimated 200.
The major City institution posted strong financial results today and admitted it 'may' move fewer than the 1,000 jobs forecast.
Claims of an impending mass exodus were made as long ago as October 2016, when British Bankers’ Association boss Anthony Browne said bosses’ fingers were ‘quivering over the relocate button’.
He warned they would leave before the end of that year unless their needs were made a top priority during Brexit. When that didn’t happen, there were reports that Japanese banks could being relocations by this June.
A few banks still do not know how many staff they will move. BNP Paribas, for example, says it is "too soon to speculate" on the potential reduction in its London workforce.
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