08.08.2016

China: growth still weak, import-export stable

Chinese import-export still firm in July. Exports of the Asian giant were down by 4.4% on an annual basis, while imports fell by 12.5%, the steepest drop since January. For the first few analysts predicted a decline of 3%, 7% for the latter.

Imports were well down in 21 of the last 24 months, exports in 12 of the last 13. The balance was a surplus net trade balance of 52.31 billion dollars, the highest since January. And so, in the first 7 months of the year, China's imports from the rest of the world decreased by 10.5% on annual basis (-8% in 2015), while exports fell by 7.4%.

Yet China suffers less of the planet as the rest of the global economy slowing down, confirming that continues to export more than it amounts, not contributing to the reduction of global imbalances. The figure for imports is particularly bad, because it would be the light of the reduction in Chinese demand for goods and services from the rest of the world, not only due to the slowdown of the domestic economy, but also of -6% charged by the yuan against the dollar in recent 12 months.

In the second quarter of the year, China's GDP grew by 6.7% trend, exactly as in the first quarter and in line with the target of the Chinese government, which has set for this year a growth rate of between 6, 5% and 7%, the lowest in 25 years.


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