05.10.2017

En Marche – Euro Zone is gathering momentum - Second Part

by Oddo BHF Asset Management

400

 

HH cons: Household consumption / Gov. Exp: Government Expenditure / GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation / Net XM: Net exports
Source: ODDO BHF AM SAS, Thomson Reuters, Datastream, Bloomberg. Figures as of 28 August 2017.

 
- After an especially strong first quarter (+1.9% year-on-year), growth surprised once again in the second quarter (+2.2%). This pace is above potential and above its 2010-2015 average.
- Credit growth remains solid and beneficial to both companies and households
- Order books and economic surveys suggest that the positive trend will continue
- The political environment has become favourable after elections in France and the Netherlands
 
 

400

Source: ODDO BHF AM SAS, Bloomberg. Figures as of 29 August 2017. 

 

Deposit rates will probably remain unchanged (but not fall any further) for some time to come

Deflation risks are fading but the decline in unemployment is not enough to boost inflation

At its September meeting, the ECB:

- revised its growth forecasts upward (to 2.2% for 2017) and its inflation forecasts downward, due mainly to the shift in the euro exchange rate – despite a general rise of commodity prices;
- did not announce any new reduction in its asset purchases, while adding that all data needed to make a decision are likely to have been compiled by October;
- said that increased scarcity in bond supply is not reason enough to accelerate tapering.

 

400

Source: ODDO BHF AM SAS, Bloomberg. Figures as of 29 August 2017. 

 

Euro zone impact:

Reflects renewed confidence although strong euro is worsening earnings per share (EPS) outlook

Gain in growth is quite sufficient to offset the forex impact

Lower import prices are boosting consumer purchasing power

The ECB is less inclined to tighten its monetary policy

 

Our CONVICTIONS

400

 

400

 

Authors

Nicolas Chaput
Global CEO & Co-CIO

Laurent Denize
Global Co-CIO

Gunther Westen
Deputy Head of Asset Allocation

 

Disclaimer

ODDO BHF AM is the asset management arm of the ODDO BHF group. It is the common brand of the two legally separate asset management firms: ODDO BHF AM SAS (France) and ODDO BHF AM GmbH (Germany). This promotional document has been produced by ODDO BHF ASSET MANAGEMENT SAS. Its dissemination to any investor is under the responsibility of each marketer, distributor or consultant. Potential investors are urged to consult an investment advisor prior to subscribing to funds regulated by the French Financial Markets Authority (AMF) or by the Luxembourg Financial Services Supervisory Commission (CSSF). Investors are hereby informed that the funds pose the risk of a loss of principal, as well as a number of risks related portfolio instruments and strategies. Investors who subscribe must review the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) and the prospectus for details of the risks incurred. The value of investments is subject to ups and downs and it is possible that investors may not recover their initial invested amount in full. The investment must be commensurate with investors’ investment goals, investment horizon, and ability to assume transaction risks. ODDO BHF ASSET MANAGEMENT SAS may not be held liable for any damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of this document or the information that it contains.The information herein is provided as an indication and is subject to change at any time without prior notice. Investors should keep in mind that past performances are not a reliable indicator of future performances and are not constant over time. They are presented after fees with the exception of any subscription fees charged by the distributor and local taxes. The opinions expressed in this document are based on our market expectations at the time this document is published. They are subject to change on the basis of market conditions and ODDO BHF ASSET MANAGEMENT SAS assumes no liability for them under any circumstances. The net asset values stated in this document are provided only as an indication. Only the net asset value stated on the transaction statement and account statement are legally binding. Fund units are subscribed and redeemed at a value that is unknown at the moment such a request is made. The DICI and prospectuses are available free of charge from ODDO BHF ASSET MANAGEMENT SAS at am.oddo-bhf.com or from authorised distributors. The annual report and semi-annual report are available free of charge from ODDO BHF ASSET MANAGEMENT SAS or at am.oddo-bhf.com.






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