Since the peak on May 24th earlier this year, the Pakistan equity market has corrected significantly. From peak to bottom the MSCI Pakistan Index Net TR fell 32% in USD, and 38% in SEK to the bottom on September 7th. It is natural for investors to wonder whether this is a buying opportunity or a sign of worse times to come. In the report, we discuss the reasons behind the market correction, and address the factors that, in our view, are behind the correction. We also discuss what could eventually signal a more lasting turnaround in the market. What started as political uncertainty has now developed into fears of an imminent devaluation. We believe this is more a result of a change in perception than a changed reality. In our analysis, we try to explain why we believe this is the case.
The Pakistani equity market has been one of the best performing equity markets of the world for the last 20 years, despite facing significant challenges. We argue that even with the prevailing uncertainty and continued risk of short term volatility the pre-conditions for Pakistani equities for the coming 20 years appear significantly improved from where they were twenty years ago. Read the full report here.
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