While the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro are about to start, Brazil is experiencing the deepest recession in its economy for over a century, with GDP already set back by 3.8% last year and presumably down 3.3% this year.
Unemployment in the quarter ended in May rose to record 11.2%, while inflation in June stood at 8.84%, despite the Selic rate of the central bank have long been at 14.25%.
Still, the latest survey carried out by the central bank of 100 local financial institutions have identified a turning point in the crisis: for the next year, the market expects a return to growth of 1%, in contrast with recent months, when the forecast was the third consecutive year of recession.
For inflation, the expectations indicate a drop to 13.25% at the end of this year and to 11% by 2017. In last January, the trend growth of prices had increased to 10.7% and that with the exception of May, since then there has been a steady slowdown.
Public accounts, however, do not bring enthusiasm: if the ratio of debt to GDP is expected to be this year to 69%, in 2017 it will still be up to 76.6%, due to a deficit currently at double digits and that to be cut austerity appears the only available recipe.
Meanwhile, the São Paulo stock exchange recorded a + 31% while the real-dollar strengthened by 22% change, demonstrating that the suspension of President Dilma Rousseff was registered as a sign of a possible change. Impeachment would therefore no longer an outcome unlikely and could come as early as later this summer.
Only a little more than half a year is remaining until implementation of PRIIPs and MiFID II, and th
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