A reluctant Russia is expected to agree with OPEC and other producers to continue to curb global oil production, but the deal may have more caveats than initially expected by the market. The somewhat rocky road to reaching an agreement by Thursday's OPEC meeting has also exposed some cracks in the new world order of oil – where Saudi Arabia and Russia use their combined heft to influence prices and global supply. The cause of those "cracks" in the new 'R-OPEC' appears to be U.S. shale oil.
Russia is ready to discuss an extension of a global deal between OPEC and other countries to cut oil output in Vienna on November 30, TASS news agency quoted the Energy Minister Alexander Novak as saying on Friday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and several other major producers cut their combined output by about 1.8 million barrels per day since January to reduce bloated inventories and boost oil prices.
The use of oil in the road transportation sector will increase even as the sale of electric vehicles is expected to rise, according to the annual long-term outlook from OPEC. If a quarter of the world’s cars have batteries, global oil demand would reach a plateau of about 109 million barrels a day during the second half of the 2030s, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its annual World Oil Outlook.
U.S. construction and fracking major Halliburton expects that the worst crude crash in a generation will lead to a spike in oil prices by 2020., according to World Oil. Tumbling oil prices brought on by a glut of global oil has forced the industry to slash about $2 trillion in investments, according to the world’s biggest fracking provider. The oil industry has lost $2 trillion in investments due to chronically low prices, said Mark Richard senior Vice President for global business development at the World Petroleum Conference in Istanbul on Wednesday.
OPEC is meeting in Vienna to discuss rolling over its six-month deal with 11 other exporters to remove 1.8 million barrels a day from the oil market in order to shrink global crude stockpiles. Consensus has formed in recent weeks around a nine-month extension, along the lines of a plan agreed to last week bySaudi Arabia and Russia. Most analysts expect the cartel to extend production cuts for another six to nine months following recent statements from major oil players.
During Obama's presidency, the US energy industry was hit strongly by environmental protection measures. Now, oil and gas industry is expected to surge forward. Do you share this point of view or not? In your opinion, will Trump's regulations help the US become more energy independent? At the moment, it is hard to say whether the energy industry is really going to surge forward thanks to Trump's regulations. Still, with relatively low oil prices, the industry is not going to receive more money regardless of any regulations the President might implement. What I mean is that the government can still make these rules easier for the companies, but it will not change the investment significantly. Overall, the new regulations implementation might be positive, but it is still not a game changer. Furthermore, I suppose that there is no need for the President to relax the environmental regulations because the industry is already capable of meeting higher environmental standards.
Eleven more oil producing nations have agreed to cut their production to try to boost global crude oil prices. The deal follows an announcement by OPEC 11 days ago that its members would collectively cut production by just over 1 million barrels a day. Large oil exporters, including Russia and Mexico, said they would mimic the Opec protocol agreed at the end of November and adjust their own production to 300,000 and 100,000 barrels a day respectively from the start of 2017. Oil prices have languished at less than or around $50 a barrel since the US became largely self-sufficient on shale from 2014 onwards; but with Opec’s announcement that production would be cut on 30 November, prices recently surged more than 15 per cent, rising last week briefly above $55.
An agreement between oil producer club OPEC and Russia to produce less to drain a global glut sent prices soaring in record trading volumes on Thursday, even as analysts warned other producers will likely top up supply. On Wednesday in Vienna, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reached a deal to reduce their oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day in order to raise global prices. The deal also hinges on non-OPEC countries contributing an additional 600,000 barrels per day worth of cuts, with about half of that coming from Russia. On Thursday Azerbaijan said it was also willing to engage in talks on cuts.
Some time ago this Newsletter predicted an oil price of US $50 per barrel in the short term (see Newsletter 92 of 22.01.2015) and possibly prices later ranging from $60 to $65. American shale oil producers can now make profits at $50 to $55 a barrel in the Eagle Ford Basin and a bit more in the Bakken fields while those in the Permian Basin can do well at $30 a barrel. The prediction of an oil price at about $50 has thus proven to be quite accurate so far. Regarding the future for oil prices, a cap of $60 to $65 seems to be fairly safe as a prediction. The Americans will increase production as soon as the price reaches $55 a barrel or even before that.
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